Time and again the elites in the "political class" have confused Independent voters with so-called "moderates" - as if the terms are interchangeable. Unfortunately, more than a few Republicans make the same mistake - they erroneously think that the way to attract those very important Independent voters is to "move to the center."

This is the kind of thinking that caused Republicans to wind up with a candidate like John McCain, who really is a "moderate" in every sense of the word - he takes a "centrist" position on just about every issue. And "centrist" or "moderate" positions - marked by their "both sides have a point" compromises - end up losing as many of the true Independents as they attract.

Moderates typically think of themselves as "not like those 'extremists' on the left or the right" - they desperately want to feel like they are more "thoughtful" than you and I are. And that they are more "nuanced" in their thinking than the rest of us. They "weigh both sides" and "consider all the options." They may even actually try to convince themselves that they, too, are "independent thinkers."

But the reality is that, after their endless mental gymnastics, most "moderates" seldom take a clear stance on anything. A moderate typically stands with one foot in the boat, and the other on the dock. When it comes to welfare, for example, a moderate will not join conservatives in scrapping the existing system and starting over, nor will they opt for the massive spending increases that liberal Democrats invariably propose - they will instead go with some "middle of the road" approach (a "little bit of socialism" must be OK, right?) so they end up changing nothing.

On something like gun control, the "moderate" will not side completely with the radical gun control fanatics who would love to ban every gun you own, nor will he join those who view their right to own guns the way the Founding Fathers viewed it - as a right that "shall not be infringed." No, the "moderate" voter will go along with so-called "reasonable" gun control (moderates just LOVE thinking of themselves as "reasonable") or agree with attacks on "certain types of guns" (those ridiculous "assault weapons" bans that failed to achieve anything).

But a genuine "Independent" is just as likely to support what most would see as a solidly "liberal" view on something like abortion, while simultaneously vehemently opposing any attempt to infringe on their right to own guns, a position liberal Democrats see as a "conservative" stance. Missing this fact can be politically hazardous.  Time and again Democrats have been burned when they let their party be influenced by anti-gun zealots like Barbara Boxer and Chuck Schumer. More than a few Democrats crossed over to vote for George Bush when they recognized Al Gore's anti-gun bias.

Another major mistake made by the political pundits is assuming that "moderate" equals "liberal-leaning" - thus they presume that all those "Independents" are more likely to be liberal, or, at a minimum, that they want "centrist" approaches. But more than 40% of all Americans describe themselves as "conservative" while only 19% describe themselves as "liberal." And since independents tend to be more concerned with their personal freedoms than being part of some big government welfare program, it would be logical to conclude that their views would tend to be more conservative than liberal on most issues - and they are.

Nothing brings this point home than the last three special elections, where Independents were critical in electing the more conservative candidate in every case, the most widely felt being openly conservative Republican Scott Brown's victory in one of the most liberal states in the nation, Massachusetts. Surveys of Independents following the "Massachusetts Massacre" show clearly that they solidly oppose just about every initiative proposed by Obama and the Democrats. And remember that Brown also pulled a sizable number of Democrats over to his side.

America is, and always has been, a "center-right" country, and the voters who most clearly illustrate this are the Independents. They don't want big government. They don't want big taxes. They don't want gun control. They don't want repressive legislation like "Cap and Trade" to combat mythical "global warming." And they most certainly do not want Obama's big government takeover of their health care.

So as we approach the 2010 mid-term elections, Republicans would be well-advised to be careful. Because while they have a magnificent opportunity, if they persist in attempting to appeal to Independent voters in the same old way - by becoming ever more "mushy moderates" - they will make a huge mistake, and one from which they may never recover.