Posted by
John Caile on Tuesday, September 28, 2010 4:45:21 PM
Gun Rights and the 2010 Elections
Will the 2011
Senate be friendlier to the Second Amendment than the current Senate?
While the 2010 election will result in gains for Republicans, both
parties contain pro-rights and anti-rights candidates. In 2006 and 2008,
this meant that the anti-Republican deluge did little harm to the net
numbers of Second Amendment supporters in Congress.
While some
conservatives wish that the NRA would not support pro-gun Democrats, the
long-term survival of the right to keep and bear arms depends on gun
rights having friends in both major parties. We saw what happened during
the George H.W. Bush administration, when the White House believed that
gun owners had nowhere else to go, and so Republicans could triangulate
to support some anti-gun laws.
This year, if N = the number of
Republican Senate gains, then the pro-gun gain will probably be more
than ½ N, but less than N. This gain could be significant, because it
would produce enough pro-rights Senators to defeat a filibuster. On the
other hand, if 2011 brings us a Democrat-controlled Senate with a
Majority Leader other than Harry Reid, pro-Second Amendment bills will
never get a vote.
So moving from East to West, let’s examine the
races, taking into account the NRA grades that the candidates have
received in present or past elections.
An important caveat: NRA
grades are not based on a pure quantitative system—as when voting
correctly a particular percentage of the time would always lead to a
particular grade. Rather, the grades take into account the candidate’s
whole career, with greater weight given to the more recent record. An A+
can only be earned with a record of leadership on the issue. If there
is a “Q” after a grade, it means that the grade is based only on the
candidate’s response to the NRA questionnaire, and the candidate has not
previously held on office in which she acted on firearms policy.
Northeast
New Hampshire:
Retiring Republican Judd Gregg was rated C in 2004. The Republican
nominee for this open seat is former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who
joined 22 other State AGs in 2009 to write to Attorney General Holder in
opposing a new ban on so-called “assault weapons.” However, she also
fought against proposed “Castle Doctrine” bill in the New Hampshire
legislature to safeguard the right of people to use firearms against
home invaders. The Democratic nominee is Paul Hodes, who got an A- when
he ran for re-election to the House in 2008.
Vermont:
Incumbent Democrat Pat Leahy looks unbeatable against businessman Len
Britton. Leahy’s record on the issue has been mixed, with lots of bad
votes in the early 1990s, a D rating in 2004, and a better performance
in more recent years. In any case, gun owners are far better off with
him as Judiciary Committee Chair than with Herb Kohl (Wisc.), who would
take over if Leahy lost. In case of a Republican takeover, Jeff Sessions
(Ala.) would be the chair, and he has been a strong leader on the
issue.
Connecticut: Retiring Democrat Chris Dodd has
been, like his father Senator Tom Dodd, both corrupt and adamantly
anti-gun. Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the
Democratic nominee, has been a leader in abusing the rights of gun
owners. Not only did he sue the firearms industry in 1999, he even
threatened to bring criminal charges against gun companies for allegedly
discussing among themselves whether they should refuse to join a
surrender agreement that Smith & Wesson signed with Andrew Cuomo’s
Department of Housing & Urban Development. (Happily, the agreement
never went into effect, and S&W has since changed owners.)
Blumenthal,
as an activist, would be even worse than Dodd. His Republican opponent
is former professional wrestling promoter Linda McMahon. McMahon’s
website has a terse statement: “America has a long history of gun
ownership, and I fully support 2nd Amendment rights.”
New York: Charles Schumer appears set to win a third term. In the Senate and in the House, he has been a very effective anti-gun leader.
Kirsten
Gillibrand is also up for election. While she was A-rated by the NRA in
the House, she has proven that Schumer was canny in convincing N.Y.
Governor David Patterson to appoint her to Hillary Clinton’s seat.
Gillibrand has completely switched sides on the issue, and on guns, as
on everything, amounts to nothing more than an echo of Schumer.
Republican
nominee Joe DioGuardi served in the U.S. House so long ago that his NRA
ratings are not online. DioGuardi is cross-endorsed on the Conservative
Party line, which usually indicates strong support for Second Amendment
rights. To almost everyone’s surprise, he has made the race
competitive.
Pennsylvania: A clear choice here.
Republican Pat Toomey has a solid record on guns. Democrat Joe Sestak
had an F in this 2008 House race. Defeated party-switcher Arlen Specter
had an erratic record during his five terms.
Delaware:
Appointed Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) is retiring. Establishment Republican
Mike Castle was rated F, and this grade actually understates how bad he
was on the Second Amendment. There is probably no Republican in the
current Congress who has taken more of a leadership role in promoting
gun control than Castle. His record was arguably worse than Joe Biden’s.
In the current Congress, he is the lead House sponsor of Michael
Bloomberg’s bill which would create the structure for federal registration of most retail gun sales.
Democratic
nominee Chris Coons so far appears to have nothing to say on firearms
policy, although given his self-description (while in college) as a
Marxist, one might infer that he is an enthusiast for a government
monopoly on the means of force.
Christine O’Donnell received an AQ
and the NRA endorsement, which may have put her over the top in the
primary. Even if presume that Coons will wins the seat, keeping Castle
out of the Senate is still progress for gun owners.
Maryland: Anti-gun Democrat Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) is running for a 5th term. She appears to face no serious challenge.
Net
result from the Northeast: Let’s say that New Hampshire’s Gregg was a
.5 (on a scale of 0 to 1), and any of his replacements is a .9, which
we’ll round up to 1.0; so we get a net gain of .5 pro-rights vote from
New Hampshire. If we give Specter a .5, then the Toomey-Sestak result
would lead to a gain or loss of .5. A win in Connecticut or New York,
would be an unexpected bonus. So let’s estimate a net +1 from the
Northeast, with potential for a net 0 (if Sestak wins) or a +3 (if
Toomey and DioGuardi win and Blumenthal loses).
Southeast
West Virginia:
To replace Robert Byrd, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin (A) is facing an
unexpectedly tough race with Republican businessman John Raese (AQ).
Byrd had a terrible record on the constitutional right to arms,
particularly considering the state he represented. Whichever party wins
in November, West Virginia is a guaranteed pick-up for gun rights.
North Carolina: Republican incumbent Richard Burr (A in 2004) vs. Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. Burr appears to be secure.
Alabama:
Alabama’s Richard Shelby (R) is running for a fifth term, while South
Carolina’s Jim DeMint (R) and Georgia’s Johnny Isakson (R) is running
for a second terms. All of them had an A in 2004, and none appears to
face a serious challenge.
Florida: Pro-Second Amendment
Mel Martinez retired, and his appointed replacement George LeMieux is
not running. Governor Charlie Crist, who had an A+ in the 2006
gubernatorial race, is campaigning as an independent. The Republican
nominee is State House Speaker Marco Rubio (A in 2006 Fla. State House
re-election). Democrat Kendrick Meek received a D+ during his 2008 U.S.
House re-election race. The Crist/Rubio polls have been very volatile,
but as long as Meek doesn’t pull an upset, the seat stays in pro-gun
hands.
Louisiana: Republican incumbent David Vitter (A) faces Blue Dog Democrat Charlie Melancon (A in 2008 House re-election).
Kentucky:
Republican nominee Rand Paul is solid on the Second Amendment issue.
The Democratic nominee is Attorney General Jack Conway, who joined the
amicus brief in McDonald v. Chicago, arguing that state and
local governments should have to obey the Second Amendment. Retiring
Republican Sen. Jim Bunning had a fine record on gun rights, so this is a
seat that will stay pro-gun.
Arkansas: Democratic
incumbent Blanche Lincoln has improved her voting record during her time
in the Senate, but she looks nearly hopeless against U.S. Rep. John
Boozman (A in 2008).
Net result from the Southeast: A +1 from West
Virginia. Boozman is more likely than Lincoln to consistently vote
pro-gun even if political winds shift in favor of gun control.
Midwest
Ohio:
Retiring Republican George Voinovich (D in 2004) almost always voted
wrong. Polls show Republican Rob Portman, who compiled a solid record in
the U.S. House (A in 2004 House re-election) opening up a lead on
Democrat Lee Fisher (F in 2006 Lt. Gov. win). Fisher has previously
served as a Board member of Handgun Control, Inc., which at the time was
the nation’s leading gun control lobby. (Now supplanted by Michael
Bloomberg’s organization “Mayors Against Illegal Guns.”)
Indiana:
Retiring Democrat Evan Bayh had a good record when he was Governor, and
a terrible one as Senator. Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth has a
perfect record (A in 2008 House re-election). Republican nominee Dan
Coats voted right more often than not, during his olden days in the
Senate, but he provided the crucial vote for the “assault weapon” ban;
he also voted for the Brady Bill. Coats appears to be running away with
this one.
Illinois: Appointed Sen. Roland Burris is
retiring. So Barack Obama’s old seat will go either to Republican Mark
Kirk (F in 2008 House re-election) or to Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.
Both are strongly anti-gun.
Wisconsin: When Democrat Russ
Feingold was elected in 1988, he started off consistently voting for
gun control. In the twenty-first century, he has improved significantly.
His race against businessman Ron Johnson is a toss-up, and NRA has not
yet graded this race. Feingold has been running radio ads criticizing
Johnson’s endorsement (later retracted) of licensing gun owners.
Iowa: Republican incumbent Charles Grassley (A in 2004) looks safe against lawyer Roxeanne Conlin.
Missouri:
Sen. Kit Bond (R) is retiring. Republican Representative Roy Rlunt (A
in 2008) vies with Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. In
1999, Carnahan ran the campaign opposing Proposition B, which would have
enacted a law to allow for the licensed carry of concealed handguns by
persons who passed a background check and a safety class. Carnahan’s
campaign asserted that licensed carry was “too dangerous for Missouri
families.” The Missouri legislature enacted licensed carry in 2003, and
experience since then has proven that Carnahan was quite wrong.
Blunt’s lead is not large, and so Missouri represents this year’s best chance that anti-gun forces to gain a Senate seat.
Oklahoma: Sen. Tom Coburn (R) (A in 2004) is will easily win re-election. He has been a very active leader on gun rights.
Kansas: For this open seat, Republican Jerry Moran (A in 2008 House reelection) has a gigantic lead over Democrat Lisa Johnston.
South Dakota: Pro-gun Republican incumbent John Thune is unopposed.
North Dakota:
Retiring Democrat Byron Dorgan (D+ in 2004 Senate re-election) had an
especially bad record in light of the state that he represented.
Republican Governor John Hoeven (A+ in 2008 gubernatorial reelection)
has a wide lead over Democrat Tracy Potter. Count this is a certain
pickup for gun owners.
Net results from the Midwest: Start off
with +2, thanks to Indiana and North Dakota, with an additional
potential +1 from Ohio, balanced by a possible -1 from Missouri.
West
Colorado: Democrat
Michael Bennet was appointed to fill the vacancy created by Ken Salazar
ascending to Secretary of Interior. In Bennet’s brief tenure, he has
voted right every time on legislation, but voted wrong on the
confirmation of Justices Sotomayor and Kagan. Notably, the Washington Post reported
that he voted for national reciprocity of handgun carry licenses only
after Charles Schumer gave him permission, because Bennett’s vote was
not needed to sustain a filibuster. Bennet is also a co-sponsor of the
Michael Bloomberg bill, S. 843, which would impose harsh restrictions on
firearms stores, facilitate national gun registration, and allow the
Attorney General to shut down gun shows.
In the polls, Bennet is not far behind Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, who is strongly pro-Second Amendment.
Arizona:
John McCain got a C for his 2004 Senate reelection, but has a much
better record since then. He seems ready to coast to a general election
victory.
Utah: Defeated incumbent Robert Bennett never
voted wrong but, unlike Orin Hatch, rarely exercised leadership on gun
rights. Republican nominee Mike Lee is a former Supreme Court clerk, an
almost certain winner in the general election, and likely to be a
pro-Second Amendment leader.
Idaho: Republican incumbent Mike Crapo represents his state well by always voting right, and he faces no serious challenge.
Washington: Democratic
incumbent Patty Murray (F in 2004 reelection) is in a close race with
former Republican gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi (A in 2008
gubernatorial bid). A Rossi win would be a significant pickup for gun
owners.
Oregon: Incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden (F in 2004)
has a comfortable lead over Republican John Huffman (A in 2008 state
house reelection). Wyden has almost always been on the wrong side; but
to his credit, in 2009 he took a leading role in enacting a statute
which stopped the Customs Service from implementing a regulatory
interpretation which would have banned the import of most folding
knives.
California: To her credit, incumbent Democrat
Barbara Boxer (F in 2004) led the fight on the armed pilots issue. Other
than that, her performance has been terrible. Republican businesswoman
Carly Fiorina has no record, but was good enough on the Second Amendment
to earn Sarah Palin’s endorsement.
Alaska: Defeated
incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski voted right but did not lead.
Republican nominee Joe Miller, like Murkowski, received an A in the
primary. Democrat Scott McAdams’ website includes a sentence in which he
says he strongly supports the Second Amendment.
Hawaii: Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye (F in 2004) is running for a 9th term, and appears nearly sure to win.
Net
results: Let’s guess that Buck wins in Colorado, and that the
Republican wins one of the two close races in California and Washington.
Net result would be an overall +1.5.
National net: The
middle-of-the-road estimate would be a total of +5.5, and a plausible
best-case scenario of +10. The middle estimate would provide enough
votes to defeat filibusters, and the +10 could be enough to defeat
vetoes.
Now for the unique case of Nevada: Ay, there’s the rub.
Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D) is running for a 5th term. Reid (B in
2004, and improvement since then) has been a good friend of gun owners
during the twenty-first century—as he was during most his time in the
Senate, except for the Clinton presidency. He was a sine qua non
for passage of the 2005 Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act,
which ended the abusive anti-gun lawsuits brought by Blumenthal,
Bloomberg, et al. As Majority Leader, he has worked with the NRA on
numerous issues behind the scenes, to keep anti-gun measures from being
snuck into appropriations bills or inserted in conference reports. He is
the reason that the Organization of American States’ anti-gun CIFTA
treaty has never been brought to floor for a ratification vote.
When Reid gets behind a pro-gun bill, he does not merely vote for it; he also works the Senate floor effectively.
Republican opponent Sharon Angle earned an A in 2004 and 2002 for her state assembly reelection campaigns.
If
Reid is defeated, but the Republicans gain fewer than ten seats, the
new Majority Leader will be Charles Schumer or Richard Durbin. There have
been anti-gun Majority Leaders before—such as Tom Daschle. But never has
there been a Majority Leader who was a strongly committed and
well-informed anti-gun activist. Such a Leader can help sneak anti-gun
provisions into other bills. Unfortunately, since Senators these days do
not read bills before voting on them, the potential for mischief is
tremendous.
In contrast, Majority Leader Reid’s staff has been
very helpful in warning Second Amendment supporters about all attempts
of anti-gun legislators to use backroom maneuvers to harm the Second
Amendment.
In sum: Whatever the size of the pro-gun gains in the
Senate, the Second Amendment may be worse off in the 2011-12 Senate if
Charles Schumer or Durbin are in charge. Anti-rights legislation
would be assigned to committees where it will get favorable and
highly-publicized hearings, and be ready for floor action if
circumstances gave it a chance of passage.
Thus, a Republican gain
of less than 10 seats, coupled with the defeat of Harry Reid, could
leave Second Amendment rights in the Senate in a worse position than
today. The good news is that, unless the President decides to invest
significant political capital, there would be little chance for passage
of anti-gun legislation.
Dave Kopel is Research Director of the Independence Institute, a think tank in Golden, Colorado.
Originally published at the New Ledger